Jevonson paradox, energy security effect and developing countries industrialization effect as drivers of coal industry growth

Abstract

This article examines the growth of the coal industry in the 21st century. Despite the development of diverse energy sources, including renewable ones, coal remains a key energy resource in the global energy mix, accounting for more than a third of the energy balance. This phenomenon is partly due to the Jevons paradox (rebound effect), which, however, cannot explain new surge in coal production, consumption, and trade (reaching a record in 2024), including in countries that have consistently reduced coal production and consumption over recent decades (the United States and Europe), given the absence of radical technological change. The article argues that energy security effect and developing countries industrial-ization effect are no less important factors in the coal industry's growth than the rebound effect.